What will happen is less than what should happen, but more than what could happen
It is the clash between aspirations and resistance that will determine how the rest of this century plays out
As an amateur futurologist, I find it useful to think of the future in terms of what is likely to happen, rather than what should happen.
“What should happen” is a driver, a motivator of action. When humans see a gap between what we want and what we have, we naturally want to to close that gap. If there is such a thing as universal “human nature”, this is a key part of it. To identify and pursue goals (aka aspirations) is inherent in every human being. It is how we drive ourselves forward and how we manage to improve our lives, one little (or big) increment at a time. In more evolutionary terms, it’s how we increase our chances of survival on this finite planet, individually but also collectively. Unfortunately, as we are now learning, it is also how we can decrease our chances of survival on this finite planet.
In thinking about the deep crises of climate change, overconsumption, and overshoot that we face today, this distinction between what should happen and what is likely to happen becomes particularly crucial. At least it does for me. As I have written before (here and…
