I know they're alarming, but I wouldn't put too much weight on polls 6 months out from the election. You are right that Biden is stuck in the middle of the Gaza nightmare. The basic problem is the fact that Israel is in theory a democracy but in fact a rightwing apartheid state. It is very hard diplomatically to maintain support for a nation but oppose its government. That's the dilemma Biden faces. I suspect by November the Israeli invasion will be withdrawn and Netanyahu will be gone from power, possibly in jail. I believe this Saudi-Israeli recognition deal will somehow be brought to closure (probably dependent on Netanyahu's exit) and at least the talk will start sounding more positive for the Palestinians. One way or another, accountability for Netanyahu and his bloodthirsty band of thugs will have to be a part of any positive developments going forward. Israeli citizens need to wake up to the catastrophe they have created by continuing to elect militant rightwing governments.

As for our election in November, by the time Dems have spent 6 months taking Trump apart, helped by his own self-destructive actions (like putting Costello on the stand pretty much guaranteed his conviction in the hush money case ... classic Trump), not to mention his criminal liabilities and deteriorating mental faculties, I believe America will finally have had enough of him and his MAGA minions. I suspect the race will not be close, because the two main issues will be abortion and Trump himself. Republicans will do their last gasp effort to overthrow the results, but this time they do not control the Presidency or the Senate, so they are even less likely to succeed than in 2020.

2024 is going to be a choice election, not a referendum election. It will be presented to the American people as a choice between chaos and stability (BAU). Americans actually don't want chaos (although they enjoy watching it on TV). We want to be left alone, not recruited into a civil war against our neighbors. Americans (putting aside the MAGA lost boys) will be aware of the threat that Trump & the GOP represent. They will vote accordingly.

And if they don't, we will deserve what we get. A nation stupid enough to elect a con man, criminal, predator, rapist, and fraudster TWICE deserves what it gets. And what it gets won't be all the things Trump and Project 2025 are promising, by the way. It will be gridlock, chaos, and bloodshed on American streets. It will be the beginning of the end of the modern world. Those are the stakes, and if the Dems do their job over the next 6 months, most Americans will be aware of those stakes, and will act accordingly.

Of course I may be wrong, but that's how it looks to me.