Can Renewable Energy Power a Civilization Built on Fossil Fuels?

The Future of Humanity, Part 3

Photo by Raphael Cruz on Unsplash.

This is Part 3 of my series of posts on the future of humanity. The series starts here.

The Age of Oil is coming to an end … one way or another. We can’t live with it and we can’t live without it, at least not yet.

Metaphorically, we have given ourselves the task of replacing the tires on the car while racing down the freeway.

Let’s assume for a moment we can pull that off. What kind of civilization can we expect at the other end of the transition?

We know that renewable energy can power a civilization, as it did for thousands of years — energy generated by human and domesticated work animals. But can renewables power a civilization as large, as energy-dependent, and as dispersed as ours? Energy scientists have been studying this question for years and, interestingly, have become more optimistic recently as their models and measures of energy transition scenarios have improved.

For example, a 2021 analysis looked at California’s plan to (1) generate 60% of its electricity using renewable energy technologies by 2030, increasing to 100% by 2045, while (2) introducing 5 million…