Can Renewable Energy Power a Civilization Built on Fossil Fuels?

The Future of Humanity, Part 3

Photo by Raphael Cruz on Unsplash.

This is Part 3 of my series of posts on the future of humanity. The series starts here.

The Age of Oil is coming to an end … one way or another. We can’t live with it and we can’t live without it, at least not yet.

Metaphorically, we have given ourselves the task of replacing the tires on the car while racing down the freeway.

Let’s assume for a moment we can pull that off. What kind of civilization can we expect at the other end of the transition?

We know that renewable energy can power a civilization, as it did for thousands of years — energy generated by human and domesticated work animals. But can renewables power a civilization as large, as energy-dependent, and as dispersed as ours? Energy scientists have been studying this question for years and, interestingly, have become more optimistic recently as their models and measures of energy transition scenarios have improved.

For example, a 2021 analysis looked at California’s plan to (1) generate 60% of its electricity using renewable energy technologies by 2030, increasing to 100% by 2045, while (2) introducing 5 million zero-emission vehicles by 2030, increasing to 10 million by 2035. The plan calls for 80% of all electricity production in the state to be powered by renewable energy sources by 2030, primarily utilizing photovoltaic cells (solar panels) to generate power and lithium-ion batteries to store it. Could such a system possibly succeed?

To answer this question, the authors examined five scenarios: (1) no new electric vehicles added by 2030, (2) 5 million added, (3) 10 million added, (4) 10 million added with demand-load balancing, and (5) 10 million added with demand-load balancing plus vehicle-to-grid technology (in which energy can be returned to the power grid from electric vehicle batteries when they are charged). All scenarios were found to be viable solutions.

“Results have shown that a future 80% renewable grid mix in California may not only be expected to be able to cope with the increased demand caused by a significant increase in electrical…