Biden, Gaza, the Polls, and November

How do we get from here to there?

Sikander Hayat Khan wrote an excellent piece about a week ago titled “Will Backing Israel Cost Biden the Election?”. I wrote a short reply, expressing my thoughts about the polls and where this terrible situation in Gaza might lead, and how all this might impact the American election in November. I’ve been thinking more about it, and decided to expand my reply a bit here, as a self-standing post. This seems an appropriate way to mark the first day of jury deliberations in Trump’s first felony trial. How can a thug, con man, fraudster, and rapist be doing so well? And how can his opponent, whose first term has been one of the most successful in modern American history, continue to do so poorly?

Let’s talk about the polls

Nobody can deny that the polling looks bad for Biden right now. The New York Times is clearly doing its best to freak the hell out of anyone its long arm can reach, well beyond its relatively small base of subscribers. Indeed, this situation has gotten so awkward that The Times’ head pollster, Nate Cohn, recently felt compelled to publish a kind of mea culpa, pointing out some empirical reasons why the polls right now might be appearing so favorable to Trump. Cohn’s take on Trump’s supposed lead is worth taking seriously:

The polls have shown Donald Trump with an edge for eight straight months, but there’s a sign his advantage might not be quite as stable as it looks: His lead is…